PETE ZIEBRON
2013 Wimbledon Champion Andy Murray Pete Ziebron Images
Andy Murray's straight set win over Novak Djokovic in today's Wimbledon final is the 33rd victory in the last 34 major championships for tennis' Big Four - Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. This year's Wimbledon semifinalist Juan Martin del Potro's 2009 US Open win over Federer is the lone major won by a man outside of the Big Four.
However, early departures at Wimbledon this year by Nadal and Federer have give the rest of the field hope and belief that they can compete for major titles, especially those in the "next four" - David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wifried Tsonga and Juan Martin del Potro. This year, Ferrer reached the Roland Garros final and Australian Open semifinal. Berdych has previously reached a Wimbledon final, Tsonga topped Federer at Roland Garros this year and has been to an Australian Open final and del Potro gave Djokovic all he could handle two days ago in the Wimbledon semifinals in addition to winning it all in New York four years ago.
Djokovic and Murray sit atop the ATP rankings and Ferrer will find himself at world #3 tomorrow when the rankings following Wimbledon are posted. Nadal's schedule for the rest of this year may be a bit lighter than usual due to the fact that the remainder of the season will be contested on hard courts. Meanwhile, Federer's streak of 36 consecutive quarterfinal appearances at majors was snapped this year in a 2nd round loss to Sergiy Stakhovsky.
Following that match, Federer suggested that the rest of the field is beginning to catch up to the Big Four: "I think there was a time where some players didn't believe they could beat the top guys. So maybe there's a little bit of a thing happening at the moment. I'm happy about that, that players believe they can beat the best on the biggest courts in the biggest matches. I think it's very important, that belief."
Wimbledon was the first major this year that each of the Big Four entered the main draw. Nadal did not play the Australian Open, opting to recover, rest and prepare for the clay court season and Murray's lower back ailments kept him out of Roland Garros. These absences are providing opportunities for the rest of the field, especially the "next four" to advance to a major semifinal, putting themselves into position to win a major.
Including play at the 2012 London Olympics, Novak Djokovic has played 29 matches against the Top 8 players in the ATP rankings. Andy Murray is next on the list with only 17 matches against the Top 8.
Rafael Nadal owns a 30-11 record against the Top 8 in the ATP in majors. Pete Ziebron Images
The following table lists the records of the ATP top eight players against each other since the London Olympics, against the Top 8 all-time and against the Top 8 in majors:
v.Top 8 since Olympics v.Top 8 all-time v.Top 8 in majors
Rafael Nadal 11-1 93-43 30-11
Novak Djokovic 21-8 72-59 25-17
Andy Murray 11-6 48-46 11-15
Juan Martin del Potro 6-8 23-45 5-14
Roger Federer 5-11 82-58 23-19
Tomas Berdych 5-11 25-55 4-11
David Ferrer 3-9 29-57 6-12
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2-10 18-47 6-11
This year at Wimbledon, Murray, Djokovic and del Potro were joined in the semifinals by Jerzy Janowicz of Poland, who won the quarter that was expected to be occupied by either Federer or Nadal. Janowicz burst onto the scene reaching the Final last October at the Masters 1000 in Paris and could be a player outside of the Top 8 that could contend for majors in the very near future.
2009 US Open Champion and 2013 Wimbledon semifinalist Juan Martin del Potro. Pete Ziebron Images
At Rotterdam this February, 1996 Wimbledon Champion Richard Krajieck tabbed Juan Martin del Potro as his favorite in the next two to three years to challenge the Big Four in the ATP. "He is a constant to win multiple Grand Slams." Meanwhile, Krajicek also identified Canadian Milos Raonic, Aussie Bernard Tomic and Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov as players that could be in the Top Five in the ATP rankings in the next four to five years.
Two years ago at Indian Wells, Rod Laver pointed out three players to watch: Raonic, Tomic and Alexandr Dolgopolov of Ukraine. Since that time, Raonic jumped in the rankings from #37 to #15, Tomic from #187 to #42 and Dolgopolov slipped from one position, from #23 to #24. Raonic and Dogopolov have each enjoyed career high rankings of #13 and Tomic was able to reach #27.
Thirty-three of the last thirty-four majors have been won by the Big Four. Based on Roger Federer's statement and improved results from the "next four", the pendulum appears to be swinging in favor of the rest of the ATP field to realistically compete for and win major titles. The US Open begins on August 26.
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