Tennis Acumen

French Open final expert picks: Nadal vs. Thiem

This article appeared earlier today on The Grandstand.

French Open expert picks conclude with Sunday’s final between Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem.  Ricky Dimonand Cheryl Murray of The Grandstand plus Pete Ziebron of Tennis Acumen make their predictions.

(4) Dominic Thiem vs. (2) Rafael Nadal 

Ricky: Nadal will almost certainly win this one…again…just as he did at Thiem’s expense in the 2018 final. He has been absolutely cruising throughout the tournament, whereas Thiem will be playing a match on a fourth straight day and is coming off a wild five-setter against Novak Djokovic. Nadal is also 3-0 lifetime in this head-to-head matchup at Roland Garros and 9-0 in total sets, with set scores of 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4, 6-0, 6-4, 6-3, and 6-2. But could this be at least somewhat competitive? Maybe, because Thiem now has at least some slam final experience (albeit not good!) and he will take confidence from his recent Barcelona scalp of Nadal (albeit under much different circumstances!). Nadal in 4: 6-2, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Cheryl: Thiem can beat Nadal on clay. He has done it once a year since 2016, and this year is already no exception. The Austrian knocked Nadal out of his home tournament in his eponymous stadium in Barcelona. But that was Barcelona. That was a different Nadal. This Nadal, the one Thiem will be playing on Sunday, is the one we all know and other players fear. Just ask Federer, who took a beating in the semis. Thiem is the second-best clay-court player in the world right now…but he’s playing the one guy who’s better than he is. Nadal is still too good in Paris. I can’t see this going any other way than a 12th title for the King of Clay. Nadal in 4: 6-3, 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.

Pete: On a positive note for the Thiem, he has defeated Nadal on clay in each of the last four years–including a few weeks ago in Barcelona en route to the title. However, in this–the third consecutive meeting at Roland Garros with Nadal–Thiem will have little chance of winning the title. That is primarily due to the fact that his tongue is on the ground after eliminating Djokovic in a match that spanned two days. Nadal put a quick end to a valiant run by Federer in his march to the semis and will look forward to properly extinguishing the challenges that Thiem will bring in their third meeting in the last five majors. It will be full flight from Nadal in the final from first ball to once again lifting La Coupe des Mousquetaires for La Decima Plus Two. Nadal in 3: 6-2, 7-5, 6-4.

French Open semifinal expert picks: Nadal vs. Federer, Djokovic vs. Thiem

This article originally appeared yesterday at The Grandstand.

 

French Open expert picks are back for a blockbuster semifinal lineup, which features Rafael Nadal vs. Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic vs. Dominic Thiem on Friday. A three-team panel previews the action and makes predictions.

(3) Roger Federer vs. (2) Rafael Nadal

Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): Federer is playing better than anyone could have expected in his first foray onto clay since 2016. It was enough to reach the semifinals, but is it enough to upset Nadal? On this surface, probably not. Although the Swiss has won five straight in the head-to-head series, he is 2-13 lifetime against Nadal on clay. The 11-time French Open champion has been rolling this fortnight, so it does not look like anything will change in a positive way for Federer. Although conditions will be decent for the 37-year-old, at the same his shank count likely goes up in the wind–and it was already too high against Wawrinka. Nadal in 3: 6-2, 7-6(6), 6-4.

Cheryl Murray (The Grandstand): Although it’s not the most prolific rivalry in tennis, it’s surely the most notable. I thought it possible that Federer might never play the French again–and here he is, in the semis playing Nadal just like old times. And while the Maestro looks just as good as always on the dirt, so does Nadal. I think Fed is playing well enough to nab a set, but not much more. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(4).

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Nadal and Federer meet–yet AGAIN! Prior to the Rome Masters last month, the respective results at Roland Garros were hard to predict for both men. Federer decided to play Rome rather than continuing to practice on clay and won two matches before withdrawing. Nadal went into it without a title on clay for the year–in fact, without a title of any kind. Rome certainly benefited both, as Federer tuned up with more necessary match play and Nadal won the title over Novak Djokovic, further bolstering his confidence heading to Paris. With the exception of dropping a set to David Goffin, Nadal has steamrolled his opposition heading into the semis. Concurrently, Federer waltzed into the quarters and showed grit in defeating Wawrinka in four sets in his last match. Nadal will relish playing the Swiss on clay for the first time in six years as he corrects course in this series and wins a head-to-head matchup for the first time in 52 months. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

 (1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Dominic Thiem

Ricky: I picked Thiem to win this match before the tournament and there is no reason to waffle now. Sure, Djokovic has been dominant–but the competition level (yes, even Alexander Zverev) has been lackluster. Although the world No. 1 has improved greatly since Indian Wells and Miami, he still doesn’t look like the player was on display at the Australian Open. Thiem struggled through three rounds but returned to his usual Roland Garros self in impressive beatdowns of Gael Monfils and Karen Khachanov. Their French Open H2H is tied 1-1. Based on current form, Thiem can–and will–beat Djokovic again. Thiem in 5: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(5), 5-7, 6-3.

Cheryl: In a stroke of luck, the two best players from the top of the draw made it through. This should be a cracker of a semifinal. Both guys have played well throughout the tournament and you can count on them having a go at each other from the baseline. I give a slight edge to Thiem, but Djokovic won’t go down without a fight. This one could well go the distance and it’s sure to be a treat. Thiem in 5: 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5.

Pete: Djokovic remains the lone player in the draw who has not dropped a set. Plenty is at stake for the world No. 1 as he aims to take another step toward holding all four majors…for the second time in his career! Following his Australian Open title, Djokovic went just 5-3 in the next three Masters 1000 events before winning Madrid and reaching the final in Rome. Thiem was just 4-3 in the three clay Masters tournaments but was victorious in Barcelona, defeating Nadal in the semis. He has now reached the Roland Garros semis for the fourth consecutive year, but this time his opponent is not Marco Cecchinato as it was last year. It is a man on a mission: Djokovic. Although I am tempted to select Thiem to win the match, the bold determination of Djokovic and what he aims to accomplish will be too much for the underdog to overcome. The Austrian will win Roland Garros a few times in his career but will fall a couple of wins short this time. Djokovic in 4: 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(5), 6-3.