This content originally appeared on The Grandstand
Expert picks are back for the last match of the ATP season: the Nitto ATP Finals title tilt between Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
Ricky Dimon (The Grandstand): It will be quite a story for whoever wins on Sunday when Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev battle for the Nitto ATP Finals title. Thiem came within two points of lifting the trophy last year; Medvedev went 0-3 in round-robin play last year. One will turn it all around and be the last man standing in this tumultuous 2020 tennis season. Both are immensely deserving. Although they survived tough semifinals on Saturday, Thiem and Medvedev have been by far the two best players from start to finish this week. The Russian is undefeated, while Thiem has beaten both Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic–losing only a meaningless dead rubber against Andrey Rublev. Mentally and physically, Thiem has endured a tougher path; his wins over Nadal and Djokovic were both incredible. Medvedev absolutely crushed people–including Djokovic–until finally being tested by the Spaniard in the semis. The world No. 4 just seems slightly more confident (and also more consistent from the baseline) than Thiem right now, as his current nine-match winning streak includes the Paris Masters title. I think that will make the different in the pressure-packed moments of what should be another thriller. Medvedev in 3: 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.
Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Any of the four semifinalists could have won this tournament and it really would not have been much of a surprise to anyone. The margins between all four men are razor thin at this point, as evidenced by Thiem’s edging Djokovic after being just three points from defeat and Medvedev surviving Nadal after the Spaniard served for a straight-set win. Thiem’s victories in the U.S. Open final as well as Saturday over Djokovic are two prime examples of how difficult it is to beat the Austrian not just on clay but now on hard courts, as well, going forward. Medvedev cruises into the final on a nine-match winning streak. Had Nadal been the opponent, Thiem would have needed to defeat Djokovic and Nadal twice to win this event. Instead, he will need to outfox the crafty Russian who willed his way to victory over Nadal. Just as in their most recent match in the U.S. Open semifinals, Thiem’s belief and steely determination will be the difference. Thiem in 3: 6-7(4) 6-3 7-5.
Cheryl Murray (The Grandstand): This is a tasty final matchup. Both Medvedev and Thiem are playing well and they both had big wins in the semis over Nadal and Djokovic, respectively. They would also both be a first-time Nitto ATP Finals champion. Thiem holds a 3-1 record over Medvedev, but I don’t put much stock in that statistic because they are essentially 1-1 since the Russian found his top form. Medvedev, who comes into London off the Paris Masters title, is probably playing slightly better indoor tennis right now–especially when he’s serving well. Still, Thiem and his glorious backhand are always a factor. In the end it may just come down to which player holds his nerve better. Medvedev in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(5).