This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.
Expert picks are back for Sunday’s Barcelona final between Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel chooses between the 11-time Barcelona champion and last week’s Monte-Carlo Masters winner.
Ricky Dimon: In recent years, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem have been the biggest challengers to Rafael Nadal on clay. It looks like Stefanos Tsitsipas could hold that distinction in 2021 (yes, I know Andrey Rublev beat Nadal in Monte-Carlo, but Tsitsipas is more dangerous long term on this surface than the Russian). With the Greek coming off a title in Monte-Carlo and four more straight-set wins this week, another Barcelona title for Nadal is not a foregone conclusion. Normally it is, of course. That being said, the King of Clay probably has the edge. He has raised his level over the last two matches, thus gaining confidence just in time for Sunday. Tsitsipas may have beaten Nadal at the Australian Open, but that required five sets on a surface that doesn’t favor the Spaniard. Nadal still leads the head-to-head series 6-2. Despite Tsitsipas’ current form, picking against Nadal on clay is not something I’m prepared to do quite yet. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.
Cheryl Murray: Usually selecting a winner in a Nadal match on clay is a no-brainer, which is to say that picking against the Spaniard is an outrageous decision. Not so this week (or last). Nadal is rusty; like really rusty. He even managed to make what should have been a shellacking of Pablo Carreno Busta in the semis more complicated than it should have been. And his Sunday opponent is absolutely tearing it up on European clay. Tsitsipas hasn’t so much as dropped a set since he set foot on the dirt. And then there’s the five-setter that Tsitispas won over Nadal in Melbourne from two sets down. Nope, there’s nothing easy about this pick. Tsitsipas is the in-form player on clay so far this year…and he just beat Nadal at the AO.At the same time, Nadal is playing on a court that literally bears his name. The crowd is going to be frantic for him to win, and…well…it is Nadal on clay–rust or not. That is really all there is to it. As I’ve said many times before, I just can’t pick against him on the dirt. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.
Pete Ziebron: Tsitsipas enters the Barcelona final on a 17-set winning streak. Only four times during this run has he lost more than three games in any set. Meanwhile, Nadal has won Barcelona 11 times and is undefeated in finals at this tournament. Ironically, though, the Spaniard has lost four sets in the last 13 he has played: two in Monte-Carlo vs. Rublev and one each to Ivashka and Nishikori this week in Barcelona. Surprisingly, both players have struggled in matches against top 10 competition in 2021. Nadal is 0-2, including a loss to Tsitsipas at the Australian Open; the Greek is 2-3. Despite uncharacteristically losing sets at venues where he has won convincingly won 11 titles (also in Monte-Carlo), Nadal has corrected course in his last two matches in Barcelona and will enter the final with confidence restored. That factor alone will be enough to make it an even dozen in capital of Catalonia, as well as a return to world No. 2. Nadal in 2: 6-4 7-5.
Comments