Tennis Acumen

Barcelona final expert picks: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

 

Expert picks are back for Sunday’s Barcelona final between Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas. A three-team panel chooses between the 11-time Barcelona champion and last week’s Monte-Carlo Masters winner.

Ricky Dimon: In recent years, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem have been the biggest challengers to Rafael Nadal on clay. It looks like Stefanos Tsitsipas could hold that distinction in 2021 (yes, I know Andrey Rublev beat Nadal in Monte-Carlo, but Tsitsipas is more dangerous long term on this surface than the Russian). With the Greek coming off a title in Monte-Carlo and four more straight-set wins this week, another Barcelona title for Nadal is not a foregone conclusion. Normally it is, of course. That being said, the King of Clay probably has the edge. He has raised his level over the last two matches, thus gaining confidence just in time for Sunday. Tsitsipas may have beaten Nadal at the Australian Open, but that required five sets on a surface that doesn’t favor the Spaniard. Nadal still leads the head-to-head series 6-2. Despite Tsitsipas’ current form, picking against Nadal on clay is not something I’m prepared to do quite yet. Nadal in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: Usually selecting a winner in a Nadal match on clay is a no-brainer, which is to say that picking against the Spaniard is an outrageous decision. Not so this week (or last). Nadal is rusty; like really rusty. He even managed to make what should have been a shellacking of Pablo Carreno Busta in the semis more complicated than it should have been. And his Sunday opponent is absolutely tearing it up on European clay. Tsitsipas hasn’t so much as dropped a set since he set foot on the dirt. And then there’s the five-setter that Tsitispas won over Nadal in Melbourne from two sets down. Nope, there’s nothing easy about this pick. Tsitsipas is the in-form player on clay so far this year…and he just beat Nadal at the AO.At the same time, Nadal is playing on a court that literally bears his name. The crowd is going to be frantic for him to win, and…well…it is Nadal on clay–rust or not. That is really all there is to it. As I’ve said many times before, I just can’t pick against him on the dirt. Nadal in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 7-5.

Pete Ziebron: Tsitsipas enters the Barcelona final on a 17-set winning streak. Only four times during this run has he lost more than three games in any set. Meanwhile, Nadal has won Barcelona 11 times and is undefeated in finals at this tournament. Ironically, though, the Spaniard has lost four sets in the last 13 he has played: two in Monte-Carlo vs. Rublev and one each to Ivashka and Nishikori this week in Barcelona. Surprisingly, both players have struggled in matches against top 10 competition in 2021.  Nadal is 0-2, including a loss to Tsitsipas at the Australian Open; the Greek is 2-3. Despite uncharacteristically losing sets at venues where he has won convincingly won 11 titles (also in Monte-Carlo), Nadal has corrected course in his last two matches in Barcelona and will enter the final with confidence restored.  That factor alone will be enough to make it an even dozen in capital of Catalonia, as well as a return to world No. 2. Nadal in 2: 6-4 7-5.

Monte-Carlo final expert picks: Tsitsipas vs. Rublev

This article first appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks are back for Sunday’s Monte-Carlo final between Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev. A three-team panel debates which man will become a Masters 1000 champion for the first time in his career.


Ricky Dimon: This may not be Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic, but Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Andrey Rublev is just about as good as you could ask for in the Monte-Carlo final. Heck, it may be a lot better than Nadal vs. Djokovic (or Nadal vs. anyone on clay), because it should be extremely competitive. The head-to-head series is all tied up at 3-3 on the main tour and they have split their two previous clay-court encounters. Rublev won a competitive three-setter in the 2020 Hamburg final before Tsitsipas cruised 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 a little more than a week later at the French Open. This looks like a 50/50 match on paper, in which case I will lean toward the player who has had an easier path in Monte-Carlo–and the one who dominated their last clay-court meeting.  Tsitsipas in 3: 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: Since “expert picks” implies actually choosing a winner, I suppose I can’t say “it’s a toss-up”…but I kind of want to anyway. Tsitsipas has a lovely clay-court game and under normal circumstances I would pick him over Rublev on the dirt. He’s quick on his feet, he displays the necessary patience required on clay, and he’s striking the ball well. These, however, are not normal circumstances. Rublev is absolutely hitting the cover off the ball right now. His win over Roberto Bautista Agut was the match of the tournament by some margin. It’s also tempting to figure his upset of Nadal into the “Rublev’s form” calculations, but Nadal played so uncharacteristically poorly that the only relevant factor from that match is the mental edge of having beaten Nadal on clay. Rublev and Tsitsipas are an even 3-3 and their matches have generally been competitive, although Rublev nipped Tsitsipas earlier this year in Rotterdam in straight sets. They’re both in great form and I expect it to be a nail-biter to the end. Still, I can’t pick against Rublev; this just feels like his tournament.  Rublev in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(2)

Pete Ziebron: After more than a decade of Masters 1000s being won by the Big 3 and Andy Murray, the rest of the field is only now beginning to win these prestigious titles. Monte-Carlo brings us an intriguing final between Tsitsipas and Rublev, who plan to reside in the ATP top 10 for most of the rest of this decade. Rublev, whose ranking was No. 70 at the time, served notice to the tour when he soundly defeated Roger Federer at the 2019 Cincinnati Masters; his upward trajectory has been steady ever since. Tsitsipas has been a threat on the ATP Tour since his run to the Canada Masters one year earlier in 2018 and has been in the top 10 for the last 25 months. While the abbreviated schedule last year significantly impacted some players on tour, Tsitsipas and Rublev  have been able to stay the course and win often. The Russian has a slightly better resume in 2021 and for this reason he gets the nod in Sunday’s final.  Rublev in 3: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3.

 

 

College Tennis - Alexander Cozbinov

Alexander Cozbinov (born 28 April 1995) is a Moldovan tennis player. Cozbinov has a career high ATP singles ranking of 743 achieved on 2 March 2020. Cozbinov played college tennis at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas between 2015–2018. He won the Mountain West Conference Tennis Player of the Year in 2018. In 2020, Alex sat for an exclusive interview with Tennis Acumen, and talked about his experience at UNLV.

Tennis Acumen: How did you come to play tennis at UNLV, University of Nevada Las Vegas?

Alexander Cozbinov: Well, I was playing at future events in Romania. One of the coaches there used to be assistant coach at UNLV. He asked me if I'm planning on going to college, and I said: “Yes.” He came to watch one of my matches and then he told the head coach at UNLV about me. The head coach contacted me and that's how I went to UNLV.  

 

Tennis Acumen: That had to be a big decision.

Alexander Cozbinov: Yes, it was. But there weren’t a lot of options for me. After I graduated from high school, my family didn't have money to support my tennis, because it's very expensive. So, I basically had a choice: stop playing or going to college and play tennis and study. I had only four months to decide. So, when UNLV offered me a scholarship. I took it right away and went to UNLV.

 

Tennis Acumen: J.P. Smith told me that playing in college, everything is very structured. You have your food and meals and hotels and your travel. Everything's arranged. Was it difficult to make the transition where you have to do it all by yourself?

Alexander Cozbinov: Oh yeah. It was very difficult to do it on my own. I almost quit at some point.  You have to find financial support. You have to pay for all expenses on your own, which makes it very difficult to keep playing and stay on the tour. You have to always keep finding ways to keep coming back. So, it's way more difficult once you decide to play professional tennis on your own.

 

Tennis Acumen: What's the difference between playing tennis as part of a team in college, compared to being out solo on the tour?

Alexander Cozbinov: Well, the tour is more individual. You're trying to build your ranking on your own. College is more about the team. It's more fun, more exciting. You travel as a team. You do everything as a team which I kind of enjoyed a lot in college.

 

Tennis Acumen: OK. So, do you still keep in touch with people you played with?

Alexander Cozbinov: I have friends, I am still friends with my teammates and I still keep in touch with the coaching staff, too.

 

Tennis Acumen: It's really interesting, your experience. One thing I'd heard is this:  in college, you get fairly large audiences. When you come out the Futures and Challengers, there's nobody there. Can you compare the audience for college tennis to the audience at this level?

Alexander Cozbinov: Yes. In college it’s much louder. I liked it. Here, it's way calmer and quieter. I enjoyed the crowds. Some people don't like it because it interrupts the game. I was OK. Here, not many people come out and it's not as exciting. I guess because it’s about only one player, not about the team.

 

For more in our series on college tennis, select the 'College Tennis' category, upper right. 

 

College Tennis - John Patrick Smith

John  Patrick Smith, from Australia, attended the University of Tennessee from 2007 through 2011, where he was a four-time All-American and made it to the college No. 1 ranking in both singles and doubles. Tennis Acumen talked with JP in early 2020. Here's one part of that exclusive interview. 

Tennis Acumen:  We are talking with John Patrick Smith. J.P., how did you first get started in tennis?

J. P. Smith: As a kid, growing up, I was into many different sports. Swimming was my first sport. I swam from ages 6 to 12 and then I started tennis around 8. Tennis complemented my swimming, but after a point, tennis was full time, as far as my main focus . I still was into other sports, well into high school.

 

Tennis Acumen: How did your family play into sports activity, and your decision to play tennis?

J. P. Smith: My family was great, in the sense that they were pretty open to what I did and supported my choices. That's why I played many sports, just because they're pretty chill. My family is very relaxed, so whatever I wanted to do they were very supportive. It was good.

 

Tennis Acumen: That’s a brilliant thing. You played college tennis. How in the world did you come to play college tennis in the USA, growing up halfway around the world?

J. P. Smith: We have a big Australian connection at the University of Tennessee. So. It's been an Australian on the team since 1987. So every year there’s this kind of pedigree that comes through. There's gonna be at least one Australian coming through. I think we’ve got three on the team right now at Tennessee. So, we've got a few and it's kind of cool gong back there and training. Always nice seeing an Aussie there. It's very nice, very unique.

 

Tennis Acumen: Now you've played a lot on the tour since college. How would you describe the tennis experience as a player at college?

J. P. Smith: It's very structured, and it's a lot of fun. It's very well run. You know, you've had people doing stuff for you. Basically, all you have to do is play tennis and go to class. Everything else is taken care for you: the travel arrangements, the tournaments you are playing. That's all taken care of. All you have to do is study and play tennis. Obviously, when you leave college, it's a whole new beast . You have to find yourself. You have to schedule tournaments, schedule your training, schedule your workouts in the gym. It's a different level.

 

Tennis Acumen: Now, did you consider going straight to the tour?

J. P. Smith: No, never. I it was all about education. I've got my education now, so it takes a little weight off the shoulders. I don’t have to go back to school as mature age student.

 

Tennis Acumen: Right. And the experience of playing as part of a team, as opposed to singles or doubles on tour?

J. P. Smith: That’s the other unique factor about college tennis. You don't get that on the tour. It’s good to factor in those four years, where you can enjoy that, build on your game with your teammates. You make new friends and new memories there in college, memories you still talk about today, even.

 

Tennis Acumen: That's brilliant.

 

For more in our series on college tennis, select the 'College Tennis' category, upper right. 

Miami Open final expert picks: Sinner vs. Hurkacz

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks are back for a surprising matchup in the Miami Open final on Sunday afternoon. A three-team panel previews the upcoming Jannik Sinner vs. Hubert Hurakcz showdown and makes its predictions.

Ricky Dimon: The Big 3’s absence plus more than a few upsets have resulted in a most improbable title match–but also one that provides plenty of intrigue. And it should be a good one, too, as it looks pretty even on paper. Hurakcz is money in south Florida, having captured the Delray Beach to begin this season in addition to a Miami run that includes upsets of Denis Shapovalov, Milos Raonic, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Andrey Rublev. In between those two events, though, there was a fair amount of inconsistency.

Despite his youth at 19 years old, Sinner seems to be the more reliable player. It feels like he is quite simply immune to pressure. And I don’t see nerves being a factor on Sunday, as it’s not like Sinner is playing against Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer in front of thousands of fans. The Italian has won two of his last six tournaments and he has a great chance to make it three out of seven. Look for Sinner to come up clutch at the end of what is sure to be an entertaining and competitive contest. Sinner in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-4.

Cheryl Murray: This definitely isn’t  the all-Russian Miami final I envisioned at the start of the tournament. In an era of unprecedented top-player dominance, a Masters final that features competitors outside the top 30 is as intriguing as it is surprising. Sinner is the better shot-maker–a likely superstar-in-the-making–but he has also had a more favorable draw. There has not been much more than the likes of Karen Khachanov and Roberto Bautista Agut in his way. That’s certainly not what could be considered an easy path, but.....

Hurkacz slayed some legitimate dragons en route to the final. He took out Shapovalov, Raonic, and then posted back-to-back victories over Tsitsipas and Rublev. With the server-friendly courts in Miami and Hurkacz’s current form, the Pole should win more free points than Sinner–an edge that can’t be underestimated. While Sinner has a bigger upside in the long run, Miami feels like Hurkacz’s tournament. Hurkacz in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(4).

Pete (Tennis Acumen): As tennis and the sporting world continue to meander through the challenges of completing live competitions, consider the fact that the winner of this match will have one more Miami Open title than Nadal and concurrently own an equal number of Masters 1000 titles as Stan Wawrinka. Both men have been on impressive upward trajectories the last few years on the ATP Tour. Throughout the string of impressive victories in the last four rounds over Shapovalov, Raonic, Tsitsipas, and Rublev, the 24-year-old hit 39 aces with just six double-faults. Twice Hurkacz has come back to win after dropping the opening set. 

Similarly,  Sinner has also come back twice to win a match in this event after facing an opening-set deficit–defeating Khachanov in the third round and Bautista Agut in the semifinals. As a result we have the 21st-seeded Italian and the 26th-seeded Pole in the Final of a Masters 1000. Hurkacz had the more difficult route to the final, and as a result his confidence is peaking. Hurkacz in 3: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4.