Tennis Acumen

Expert picks: Nadal vs. the field at the 2021 French Open

The following article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks will continue during the latter stages of the French Open, but first they partake in a pre-tournament debate over whether Rafael Nadal or the entire field should be the title pick. A three-team panel weighs in.


Ricky Dimon: Until Nadal loses again at the French Open, I’m not betting against him–unless maybe he failed to win any clay-court title in the buildup to Roland Garros and suffered some terrible losses along the way. That isn’t the case now. Sure the world No. 3 has not been at his dominant best this spring, but he has endured worse pre-FO clay-court swings in the past and still ended up triumphing in Paris. Beating him in a best-of-five situation on his primary stomping grounds is just a whole different beast compared to taking him down in places like Monte-Carlo or Madrid.

I am picking Nadal as the champ without hesitation. There is no one player who looks like a more likely champion. The better debate, of course, is Nadal vs. the entire field. Give me 127 other players and I would at least have to think about it. The odds suggest as much; Nadal is -125 to win the tournament; a huge favorite over everyone individually, but just a slight favorite over the field. His draw is somewhat concerning, with Novak Djokovic in the same half and Jannik Sinner a potential fourth-round opponent. At the same time, avoiding a potential quarterfinal clash with Stefanos Tsitsipas was important. The Spaniard will have worked himself into the tournament by the time he could face Sinner and then Djokovic, and I certainly wouldn’t pick Tsitsipas or Alexander Zverev over him in a French Open final. Nadal isn’t an absolute slam dunk like he sometimes is, but I’m not about to bet against him when he has won this thing 13 times and begins his bid for 14 with the momentum of a recent title in Rome.

Cheryl Murray: The French Open offers an annual opportunity to ruminate on the chances the other 127 singles players in the field have against Rafael Nadal. Usually, that answer is “why even bother to ask?” This season is perhaps a bit more nuanced. Is Nadal the favorite? Of course. When I make my pre-tournament selection, I will ink (not pencil) Nadal in as the winner. The difference is that the field is closer than it normally is–close enough that it is worth discussing. In fact, as a whole it may have enough to topple Nadal. I’m going to go off-script and pick Tsitsipas over Djokovic as the next most likely player to lift La Coupe des Mousquetaires in a fortnight’s time. Djokovic has looked a little…shaky…on the dirt. As of this publication, he has no clay titles in 2021 (that could change on Saturday) and while he made the finals in Rome (where he lost to Nadal), he was neither dominant nor in particularly impressive form. Tsitsipas HAS been impressive, even though he lost to Nadal in the Barcelona final. Other notable non-Nadal contenders are Andrey Rublev and Jannik Sinner–who are both in Nadal’s section–and Casper Ruud, who is in the ghost-town bottom section of the draw with Tsitsipas. 

Conspicuously absent from my contenders list are Thiem–who has been knocking on Nadal’s throne room door for years–and Federer. Thiem, who last made the French Open final in 2019, has gone on a mental walkabout since he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s in the favorable third section of the draw and Ruud is still my pick to advance in that quarter. As for Federer, well…he just isn’t match-fit enough to be a contender in Paris. Still, Djokovic and Tsitsipas are formidable. If I had to pick only one player as the champ I would go with Nadal, but give me the entire field and I like my chances with 127 guys vs. one.

Pete Ziebron: Match play….. THAT is what Nadal needed. Enough match play and he is more than good to go to defend his Roland Garros crown against Djokovic and the rest of the field in 2021. All of these years many have questioned and even criticized Nadal for playing Barcelona, a 500 in the midst of three significantly more prestigious Masters 1000 events on clay. Nadal did things HIS way, this year and every year for the last decade and a half. These extra–and in some cases excessive matches–were what he believed he needed to prepare for winning Roland Garros. To date, that strategy and formula have worked exceptionally well. An atypical Nadal meandered through the clay-court season, eventually correcting course and winning the title in Rome against Djokovic in the final.  Somehow, the next meeting they may have would occur in the semifinals because they are on the same side of the draw this time.  With all due respect to the field in his portion of the draw, let us fast forward to the quarterfinals–where the Spaniard will most likely run into Andrey Rublev, the crafty young Russian who defeated him last month in the Monte-Carlo quarters. Rublev won the first and third sets at 6-2. However, that was extremely early in the clay-court season for the 34-year old Nadal. He then rebounded in Barcelona (won that title against Tsitsipas), faltered against Zverev in the Madrid quarters, and then went on a most impressive run by defeating Sinner, Shapopalov, Zverev, Opelka, and finally Djokovic to win Rome for the 10th time. In total, 16 clay-court matches played in 2021 with two titles…enough match play and not too much for Nadal at this point in his career.

Expect Nadal to continue his assault against those who stand in his way yet again and win his quarter against Rublev to reach the semis. Next, Nadal would most likely face Djokovic for the NINTH time at Roland Garros. Nadal leads the H2H in Paris 7-1 and has a massive 20-7 sets won differential in those contests. Djokovic will have work to do to reach this point, as potential quarter final opponents include Berrettini and Federer. All signs point to a Nadal-Djokovic semifinal. Nadal may find himself down a break or even 0-40 while serving a few times in the match, but just as in the past, he will find ways to get through those deficits and bad patches and win.

Everyone on the bottom half congratulated themselves on their good fortune when they saw the draw. The contenders that were drawn here include: Zverev, Thiem and Tsitsipas, with Dimitrov and Ruud also announcing the fact that they think they can win this half of the draw and then hope for an exhausted opponent in the final. Realistic quarterfinals here would be Zverev vs. Thiem and Tsitsipas vs. Dimitrov.  Despite the focus being on the top half of the draw, these quarterfinals will be intriguing. Obviously much remains to be seen, but my pre-tourney picks here will be Zverev to play Tsitsipas in the semifinals with the Greek winning the match. Thus, the Roland Garros final will be a rematch of the Barcelona final–in which Nadal outfoxed Tsistipas and stole the title. Tsitsipas will have learned from that match and will attempt a slightly different gameplan this time. Historically, Tsitsipas’ losses at Roland Garros have been against Djokovic, Wawrinka, Thiem, and Karlovic. Nadal, a 13-time RG champion, may join that list.

Alexander Cozbinov - How I Got Started

February 26, 2020. Tennis Acumen is at the Challenger tournament in Columbus, Ohio. Here's part of an exclusive interview with Alexander Cozbinov.

Tennis Acumen: We are meeting with Alexander Cozbinov, a tennis player from Moldova. and part of the reason we're fascinated with you, Alex is the transfer from Europe to the United States and your career playing at the college level. Tell us, first off, how did you get started playing tennis?

Alexander Cozbinov: Well my dad was playing, as an amateur. He liked to play some amateur tournaments, so every time he played, he took me with him, and I just kind of picked it up on my own. I start hitting against the wall. He watched me, and he decided to start coaching me. He was my coach from the very beginning.

 

Tennis Acumen: So, when did you first pick up a racket?

Alexander Cozbinov: When I was six years old. That's when I started playing.

 

Tennis Acumen: Right. A lot of guys start that young. Was there a tennis scene? Was there support for the game of tennis in Moldova.

Alexander Cozbinov: Not really. There's not as many opportunities in Moldova. For example, we have maybe five or six indoor courts in the whole country. In the summer, it’s OK. In the winter, it is very difficult to find time on the court. Sometimes we had 10 or 15 kids on one court. So, it was very difficult.

 

Tennis Acumen: In a country with 2.8 million people, that’s hard.  And you grew up in the capital city.

Alexander Cozbinov: Yes. We have two clubs there, but you couldn't always get court time.

 

Tennis Acumen: What did you do when you couldn't get a court?

Alexander Cozbinov: My dad used to be a track and field runner. So, I used to do a lot of fitness. And I'm trying to work on my serve, sometimes just hitting against a wall, stuff like that.

 

Tennis Acumen: And when did you discover you really loved tennis more than anything else?

Alexander Cozbinov: I guess from my first competition. I played Futures in Romania, Turkey, the Ukraine.  I really liked competing and I wanted to play more and more. So, I guess from that point, I knew.

Photo of the Day: Richard Gasquet

Richard Gasquet, born in 1986, is a French player. His career-high ATP singles ranking is world No. 7, attained in 2007.He has won  15 singles titles on the ATP Tour. In Grand Slam singles, Gasquet reached the semifinals of the 2007 and 2015 Wimbledon Championships and the semifinals of the 2013 US Open. Gasquet is best known for his elegant groundstrokes and his one-handed backhand.

 

photo credit: Karl Corbett, (c) Tennis Acumen

 

Richard Gasquet is shown here at his 2010 run to the third round in Cincinnati. He beat Mikhail Youzhny and Michael Berrer before falling to Mardy Fish.

Rome 2021 Final Expert Picks: Djokovic vs. Nadal

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

 

Expert picks are back one more time before the French Open, as a three-team panel makes its predictions for Sunday’s final of the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. It wasn’t easy to get there for either man, but it’s Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal.

Ricky Dimon:  Since losing to Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals of this same Rome event in 2016, Rafael Nadal has restored order to the their head-to-head series on clay. Nadal is 4-0 in their last four clay-court contests, while Djokovic is 10-0 in their last 10 matches on all other surfaces. The Spaniard is 9-1 in their last 10 clay-court sets and even though he dropped one in the 2019 Rome final, the other two sets were 6-0 and 6-1 in his favor. As if that isn’t a big enough check mark in Nadal’s favor already, he is also more rested. the nine-time Rome champion is coming off straight-set victories over Alexander Zverev and Reilly Opelka. Whereas Nadal played only two sets on Saturday, Djokovic battled through five total sets across grueling victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas (rain delayed from Friday) and Lorenzo Sonego. As fit as the Serb is, that is going to be a factor–perhaps both physically and mentally. All signs point to Nadal taking care of business without too much trouble, thus picking up much-needed momentum in advance of Roland Garros. Nadal in 2: 6-4, 6-3.

 

Cheryl Murray: The most prolific rivalry in the history of men’s tennis is about to add a 57th installment. It’s an extraordinary athletic relationship–not just due to its frequency and longevity, but also because they have been involved in some of the greatest tennis matches of all time. Unfortunately, a Nadal-Djokovic “epic match” hasn’t happened in a good long while…since the 2018 Wimbledon semis to be precise, which Djokovic edged in a 10-8 fifth-set thriller. Since then, they’ve adhered to a script that goes like this: Djokovic wins handily on hard courts and Nadal wins handily on clay, as though by tacit agreement that it should be so. While it’s true that Djokovic spent more than hours on Saturday contesting both his quarterfinal and semifinal matches, he’s one of the fittest players who has ever stepped on a court. If Nadal wins, it won’t be because Djokovic is out of gas; it’ll be because the court is made of crushed brick. Nadal in 3: 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.

 

Pete Ziebron:  With the exception of the sluggish opening set and a half against Shapovalov in the third round, Nadal has to be pleased with his efforts in Rome–where he will now look to add the “La Decima” demarcation to yet another prestigious event. Surprisingly, though, opponents have won at least four games in nine sets played against Nadal–the only exception coming when Zverev managed three in the opening set of their quarterfinal contest, Concurrently, Djokovic has also been tested extensively by Tsitsipas, Fritz, and Sonego, but he managed to arrive in the final as many expected. Thus we finally have an all-Big 3 Masters 1000 Final for the first time in exactly two years, when Djokovic and Nadal met in the 2019 Rome Final. However, we arrived at this point as the result of both champions fighting their way through challenging patches of matches–their resilience on full display again and again and again. Nadal will be the fresher of the two, as 10 of the 20 games in his semifinal were won at love. Djokovic went the distance in the second semi and that will likely be the determining factor in a match with slim margins. Nadal in 3: 3-6, 6-4, 6-4.

J. J. Wolf - Hitting with Roger, Winning and Losing

Jeffrey John "J. J." Wolf (born December 21, 1998) is an American professional tennis player. He achieved a career-high ATP singles ranking of world No. 120 in September 2020. Wolf played collegiately at The Ohio State University, where he was the #1 ranked player in college tennis. J. J. sat with Karl Corbett of Tennis Acumen at the Knoxville Challenger in November, 2019.  Here is part of that exclusive interview. 

photo credit: Karl Corbett  (c) Tennis Acumen 

 

Karl: Coming up through the ranks, the only way you're going to get better is by playing guys that can beat you. So how do you deal with the struggles and the losses?

J.J.: My coach is always telling me: “You either win or you learn.” If you are beating everyone easily, well…. In college last year. I started out real hot. I'm mostly winning throughout the whole year, but I don't feel I was playing as sharp towards the end. When I’m getting comfortable and thinking I'm going to win every match, then I’m not on my toes as much.

So, when you when you play somebody that can beat you, it really pushes you to get better. You see a Roger Federer or a Rafael Nadal, they push each other all the way to the top. They keep getting better.

 

Karl: I saw a photo on the web of you with Roger Federer. You had your Ohio State shirt on. How long ago was that taken?

J.J.: That must have been two years ago, in Cincinnati, a day or two before I played my first qualifiers match in at the Cincinnati Masters. So, I remember, I was supposed to hit with him, from 8 to 10 that night. He was flying in and walks on the court, maybe an hour late saying: “My jet got in late. I’m sorry.” I said: “Don't worry about it, really.” I think we hit till 11:00. We went from 9:00 to 11:00 at night and then we sat and talked 30 or 40 minutes after that.

 

Karl: So, he's a gracious guy?

J.J.: He is very gracious. He remembers you, too. You wouldn't think you'd remember someone the way he does. I'd see him in Indian Wells or something and he’d use my first name, say: “Hey, JJ. How are you doing?” It's pretty cool to hear that from one of your heroes.

 

Karl: That says something about the man.

J.J.: It was very nice, when I've definitely not done anything to deserve that. It makes you look up to the guy.

Alexandr Dolgopolov Retires

PETE ZIEBRON

 

Alexandr Dolgopolov retired from the ATP Tour today.  His game was always fun to watch and he provided a few memorable moments that I will share with you here.

In 2011 on the old Court #2 at Indian Wells, Dolgopolov was playing Juan Martin del Potro.  The Argentine would win a tightly contested match 7-6(3) 6-3 but what made this memorable for me as well as the nearly capacity crowd was what happened on Dolgopolov's serve in the middle of the opening set.  The Ukrainian served three consecutive lets.  After the third, he just started laughing uncontrollably.  A fun moment in an otherwise tense match.

Jim Courier joined John McEnroe in the booth for one of Dolgopolov's matches at the US Open.  The Dolgopolov service motion has always looked effortless as he simply snaps into action, tosses the ball and fires away, time and time and time again with little to no variation in the technique.  Courier accurately described this motion as looking like a "jack-in-the-box" and McEnroe laughed hysterically.  Two points later, McEnroe just uttered "jack-in-the-box" and continued laughing.  Jim Courier absolutely nailed it, he certainly looks like a jack-in-the-box on every service motion.  Too bad we will no longer see it on tour.

In 2017, Kevin Anderson arrived in Cincinnati having won 10 of his last 13 matches and playing solid tennis.  Two weeks later, he would reach the US Open final, falling to Rafael Nadal.  However, at the Western & Southern Open, he played Dolgopolov on sunken Court 9 in the opening round.  My vantage point for the entire match was front row directly behind the server on the end opposite Center Court.  Dolgopolov withstood 24 aces from the South African, did not hit a double fault and also did not allow any break point opportunities en route to an impressive 6-4 7-6(6) victory.

Sam Querrey was asked in press in Cincinnati in 2010 about his next opponent, Dolgopolov.  Querry attempted a few times to pronounce his surname, unsuccessfully.  Doll-gop-a-lov, then Dole-ga-pawl-ov.  Several broadcasters stumbled over the pronunciation over the years.

Somewhat surprisingly, Dolgopolov has only been requested for press conferences 16 times in his career.  One was in 2015 in Cincinnati following a 4-6 7-6(5) 6-2 loss in the semifinals to Novak Djokovic.  En route to the semis, the Ukrainian came through qualifying and defeated: Bernie Tomic, Jerzy Janowicz, and Tomas Berdych in the main draw.  Dolgopolov actually had the match on his racquet in the second set tiebreaker.

My favorite portion of the presser following the match was about his clothing line:

Q. The design on your shirt looks like the Ukrainian flag. Is that intentional?
ALEXANDR DOLGOPOLOV: Yeah, that's the Dog Collection, actually, so made a little bit with the colors of Ukraine. It's quite nice from home to do that, and I'm happy with it.

The Dog Collection.

Dolgopolov won 3 singles titles: Umag in 2011, Washington in 2012 and Buenos Aires in 2017.  In addition he won the doubles title at Indian Wells with Xavier Malisse in 2011.  His career record in singles on the ATP Tour is 221- 201.

Alexandr "The Jack-in-the-Box" Dolgopolov will be missed!