This article originally appeared on The Grandstand:
Expert picks are back for the French Open semifinals, which are highlighted by another Novak Djokovic vs. Rafael Nadal showdown. It’s Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alexander Zverev on the other side. A three-team panel makes its predictions.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (3) Rafael Nadal
Ricky Dimon: Every Djokovic-Nadal showdown is going to be massively hyped–and for good reason. This one should be–and will be–as well. But much like last year’s French Open final, there is no real reason to think it will live up to the hype. The King of Clay dominated the 2020 championship in straight sets and you should expect him to do the same, this time in the semis. Djokovic is coming off a five-setter against Lorenzo Musetti and a four-setter against Matteo Berrettini, looking not at his best either physically or mentally in either match. Moreover, Nadal just beat the Serb in last month’s Rome final and the Spaniard is much, much tougher to beat in Paris than in Rome (see what happened last year, when he lost to Diego Schwartzman in Rome and went on to win the French Open with ease). Speaking of Schwartzman, the 13-time RG champion won an absurd 30 of the last 35 points of their quarterfinal contest. A second-set hiccup aside, he is quite simply looking unstoppable. Nadal should beat Djokovic–again–and it probably won’t even be especially competitive. Nadal in 3: 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-2.
Cheryl Murray: It’s Nadalovic part 58 on Friday. There was a time when each match seemed like it was up for grabs, but the older Nadal and Djokovic get, the more siloed their wins have become. You have to go back to 2016 at the Rome Masters to find the last time Djokovic beat Nadal on clay, and allllll the way back to the 2013 U.S. Open for the last hard-court match that went Nadal’s way. Nadal has won their last five meetings on the dirt, including the beating Djokovic took in last fall’s COVID version of the French Open and the Rome final a few weeks ago. While it’s true that Nadal has been a click or two off his clay-court best in Paris, when he steps out on the court against Djokovic he knows just what to do. Nadal in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-2, 7-5.
Pete Ziebron: Nadal and Djokovic yet again! Aside from a few people taking wild fliers on their predictions, everyone else correctly and properly wrote this matchup into their brackets. While Nadal had his 36 consecutive set winning streak at the French halted in the quarters by Schwartzman, Djokovic encountered more serious drama–having to overcome a two-set deficit against Musetti in the round of 16. In their previous eight meetings at Roland Garros, Nadal has won seven–including four of them in straight sets. Both men have incredibly impressive first-serve points won percentages heading into the semi: Nadal at 81%, 84%, 79%, 81%, and 73% in his five matches; Djokovic at 86%, 75%, 88%, 75%, and 77%. Something has to give and most likely it will be Nadal’s ability to find ways to survive a few rough patches that he will encounter from the Serb. Like almost always, Nadal has the solutions and executes them again this time. Nadal in 4: 6-7(4), 6-4, 7-5, 6-4.
(6) Alexander Zverev vs. (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ricky: Tsitsipas came within one set of his first Grand Slam final last year in Paris, and that was with Djokovic standing in his way. Now he doesn’t have to face Djokovic–and not any other member of the Big 3, either. That means his first slam final appearance should be forthcoming. Zverev is a tough opponent, but Tsitsipas is leading the head-to-head series 5-2 and won their only previous clay-court encounter two years ago in Madrid. The German is good on clay; the Greek is great. Tsitsipas moves better on this surface and I would give him the advantage in offense, too, because his forehand is on fire and Zverev’s second serve is more suspect. Tsitsipas in 4: 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-3.
Cheryl: Although obviously not as high-profile, this might actually be the more entertaining of the two semifinals. They’re both playing well, even though Zverev’s good results can be partially attributed to his favorable draw. Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has probably shown the best form of any player in Paris (including Nadal). He was particularly impressive against arch rival Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Zverev won the first and also the most recent meetings with Tsitsipas, but the Greek won each of the five matches in between. With the way Tsitsipas has been playing this fortnight, it’s hard to pick against him…. So I won’t. Tsitsipas in 5: 7-5, 2-6, 6-4, 6-7(4), 6-2.
Pete: Those contenders on the bottom half of the draw had a serious opportunity this year to reach the Roland Garros final without having to play Nadal or Djokovic. The two most likely candidates did what was expected in the initial five rounds and now Tsitsipas and Zverev will meet for the first time in a major. Following a two set-deficit in his opening match, Zverev has not dropped a set and has a commanding 36-12 games won differential against opponents in his last two matches (round of 16 and quarterfinals). Aside from dropping the opening set against John Isner, Tsitsipas has won every set he has played in the tournament. Both men won a Masters 1000 on clay heading into the French Open this year, however it is Tsitsipas who will prevail to advance to his first major final. Tsitsipas in 4: 6-4, 6-7(3), 6-4, 6-3.
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