Tennis Acumen

2021 U.S. Open final expert picks: Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks at the U.S. Open are wrapping up with the men’s singles final on Sunday. It’s Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev, with history on the line. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. Daniil Medvedev

Ricky Dimon: I can see valid arguments on both sides. Djokovic has not been dominant this fortnight, Medvedev is 14-1 since Wimbledon, and their head-to-head history has been relatively competitive. But I think all of that goes out the door in this situation: not only a major final, but also one in which Djokovic is facing someone other than Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer. And it’s not just any major final; the calendar-year Grand Slam and 21 slam titles are on the line. Nobody has ever been as tough mentally under these kinds of conditions as the 34-year-old Serb. Oh, yeah; he’s not too shabby physically, either. Medvedev is not the kind of player who can hit Djokovic off the court; the Russian is going to have to beat him at his own game. That just isn’t happening in this particular match. It’s too important for Djokovic; it’s an opportunity he probably won’t come close to letting slip away. Djokovic in 4: 7-6(4), 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.

Cheryl Murray: It’s not that Medvedev can’t beat Djokovic. The world No. 1 holds a 5-3 record over the underdog–hardly an emphatic head-to-head edge. It’s just that Medvedev won’t. History is on the line on Sunday. BIG history. A calendar-year Grand Slam. It’s the kind of moment for which Novak Djokovic is uniquely suited. It’s no accident that the player with probably the most impressive mental toughness of all time is poised to do the unthinkable. He isn’t the greatest server on tour, but he’s probably the best server under pressure. He brings the heat exactly when he needs to. There is also the fact that Djokovic just gave Medvedev a shellacking in the final of the Australian Open. This one is going to be more competitive. Djokovic actually hasn’t played as well as he’s capable over this fortnight. The Russian may even take an early lead, but in a best-of-five match on a hard court, it’s simply impossible to pick against Djokovic. Djokovic in 5: 3-6, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7, 6-2.

Pete Ziebron: Prior to the start of the U.S. Open, it was being reported that the speed of the courts–particularly Ashe–was faster than anyone could ever recall. This fact “may” be relevant during stretches in this final since it was in Cincinnati two years ago that Medvedev was able to utilize the quick courts there to his advantage to defeat Djokovic and then continue to play exceptional tennis since that time. The speedy courts in New York have been favorable to the Russian, as he has dropped just one set in reaching the final. Djokovic continues to take his time in getting into the flow of his game, as he has inexplicably dropped the opening set in his last four matches. Despite the fact that the last six meetings have been split, it will come down to the ability to focus for more than three hours. Medvedev has had the unfortunate ability to lose his focus (disagreeing with the chair umpire, running into TV cameras on the court, and destroying racquets), which has cost him dearly at times this year. Meanwhile, Djokovic has his eyes firmly on the grandest of prizes that has not been seen on the ATP tour since 1969–the calendar-year Grand Slam. One more win and that monumental accomplishment will be his. Novak Djokovic will not be denied. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 2-6, 6-3.

 

2021 U.S. Open final expert picks: Leylah Fernandez vs. Emma Raducanu

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks are back for a most amazing U.S. Open women’s final matchup: 19-year-old Leylah Fernandez against 18-year-old Emma Raducanu. They are ranked No. 73 and No. 150 in the world, respectively. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(Q) Emma Raducanu vs. Leylah Fernandez

Ricky Dimon: Well, it doesn’t get any crazier than this: Leylah Fernandez vs. Emma Raducanu in the U.S. Open final. This all-teenager showdown between two players ranked outside the top 70 (but clearly with top-5 if not even top-1 potential) is must-watch television for tennis fans. Although the quality of play in Saturday’s championship match will almost certainly live up to the hype, I’m not sure the scoreline will do the same. In nine matches at this tournament (three in qualifying), Raducanu is 18-0 in total sets. The 18-year-old Brit has not even been pushed to a tiebreaker and nobody in the main draw has taken more than four games in any set. She is simply crushing people. Fernandez, on the other hand, is coming off four consecutive three-set thrillers. That isn’t her fault; the 19-year-old Canadian has faced a much tougher draw. But the physical and mental struggle of such matches has to take its toll. With Raducanu in this kind of dominant form, you can’t bet against her. Raducanu in 2: 6-3, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: This might just be the most surprising final in U.S. Open history. Fernandez is ranked 73rd in the world, while Raducanu is ranked 150th. That would be a shock on its own. No Naomi Osaka, no Ash Barty…no one ranked inside the top 70 in the world. What’s more shocking is how we got here. Leylah Annie Fernandez has put together one of the most impressive upset runs I have ever witnessed. It’s not as though the draw opened up in front of her; SHE did the opening. She beat Osaka, Angelique Kerber, Elina Svitolina, and Aryna Sabalenka to earn her spot in the final. Raducanu actually came up through qualifying, becoming the first qualifier in the history of the sport to reach the women’s semifinals of the US Open. Now, of course, she’s the first qualifier to reach the final. The fact that she dropped ZERO sets along the way is all the more extraordinary. It’s splitting hairs to call one player’s run more impressive than the other’s, but if you pinned me down I’d have to say that Fernandez has been a touch more impressive because Raducanu defeated two seed (No. 11 Belinda Bencic and No. 17 Maria Sakkari) en route to the finals and Fernandez defeated 374 seeds–at least that’s how it felt, anyway. There is the off chance that given the difficulty of her matches compared to Raducanu, Fernandez might be more fatigued. But she didn’t look tired against Sabalenka. I think she has one more win in her. Fernandez in 3: 7-5, 4-6, 6-4.

Pete Ziebron: Improbable would be a huge understatement to even attempt to begin to describe the 2021 U.S. Open women’s final matchup between the world No. 73 and a qualifier ranked No. 150. Let’s start with Raducanu: 18 sets won, zero lost; one bagel set and five breadstick sets won. A 7-5 set in the second round of qualifying has been the closest anyone has come to threatening the 18 year-old, who was seeded 31st in the qualifying draw. Next we have Fernandez, 19 years and five days old. She needed to go the distance in each of her last four matches. The opponents she defeated (in order): defending champion Osaka, 2016 U.S. Open champion Kerber, world No. 5 Svitolina, and world No. 2 Sabalenka. The fearlessness that both women have exhibited throughout the tournament has been sensational. Twice Fernandez had to overcome a one-set deficit (against Osaka and Kerber) before prevailing in three. In the final, Fernandez will again drop the opening set but this time she will not have the answers as Raducanu wins 20 consecutive sets to win the match and tournament. Raducanu in 2: 6-4, 6-3.

 

 

2021 U.S. Open semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Zverev, Medvedev vs. Auger-Aliassime

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks are back for a blockbuster U.S. Open semifinal lineup, which will play out on Friday. Felix Auger-Aliassime is the lone surprise of the quartet, and he will go up against Daniil Medvedev. Novak Djokovic’s bid for the calendar-year Grand Slam continues against Alexander Zverev.

(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Alexander Zverev

Ricky Dimon: After watching the last two Australian Open finals and more recent Grand Slam finals at the French Open and Olympics, I’m not picking anyone from the younger generation to beat Djokovic at a slam–especially not when it gets down to the business end of the tournament. It’s as simple as that. Yes, the world No. 1 lost to Zverev at the Tokyo Olympics, but that’s not the same as a major–and it’s not a best-of-five situation. Djokovic simply goes into a different gear on this stage, and he is doing it to an even greater extent than usual with the calendar-year Grand Slam on the line. It’s obvious from his previous performances this fortnight that he will give opponents a chance for a while, but he will shut the door when the going gets tough. Zverev, who is on a 16-match winning streak, is playing well enough to test the top seed longer and harder than anyone else. But the German won’t be able to do it for four-plus hours in a slam semi. Djokovic in 4: 7-6(5), 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: For the first time this tournament, Djokovic is playing someone who has a legitimate chance to beat him. Zverev snagged the gold medal out from under Djokovic at the Tokyo Olympics a couple months ago, a surprise to all and sundry since the Serb was the heavy favorite. So the question here isn’t whether Zverev CAN beat him, but whether he actually WILL. And the answer to that question is…probably not. Zverev doesn’t have service yips anymore and he can legitimately stake a claim as one of the top three in-form players in the world right now, but unfortunately for him both guys ahead of him are still in the tournament (Djokovic and Medvedev). Moreover, Djokovic is perhaps the greatest best-of-five player of all time thanks to his superior conditioning and his ability to lose sets but not losing his focus. Expect Zverev to come out serving big and attempt to keep points relatively short, as it’s a well-known occupational hazard to trade groundstrokes with Djokovic. Still, the Serb knows how to win, and history is on the line. He WANTS that calendar slam, and it’s hard to imagine that Zverev is going to stop him. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2.

Pete Ziebron: Suddenly, the Djokovic-Zverev rivalry is front and center on the ATP Tour as they will play now for the fifth time in the last 10 months and 10th time overall. Djokovic appeared to have a sixth consecutive win in the series at the Tokyo Olympics but suddenly hit the wall, and the German continued his fine play to win that semifinal and later the gold medal. In fact, Djokovic had won 14 of their last 15 sets until dropping two in a row at the Olympics. A pair of impressive streaks are on the line this time with Djokovic riding a 26-match winning streak at the majors and Zverev winning his last 16 matches overall. While Zverev has been efficient on court, including winning his second-round match in just 74 minutes, Djokovic has had sluggish starts to matches–dropping the opening set in each of his last three encounters. Zverev nearly won the U.S. Open last year and is certainly in form in New York again this time. However, this is the 12th time that Djokovic has reached the semifinals. He is completely dialed in especially at this stage of slams and will refuse to let anything get in the way of the historical accomplishment he is determined to achieve with winning the title. Djokovic in 4: 5-7, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(4).

 

12) Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev

Ricky Dimon: Is this going to be competitive? Yes. Auger-Aliassime has been in outstanding form throughout the U.S. Open and he is serving well enough to keep any opponent on his heels. The Canadian has struck the fourth-most aces so far at this tournament (85) and is winning 81 percent of his first-serve points. But is an upset going to happen? It’s doubtful. Similar to playing against Djokovic, it is brutally difficult to outlast Medvedev in a best-of-five situation. The second-ranked Russian often plays a Rafael Nadal-like distance behind the baseline and will put ball after ball back in the court. He has dropped just one set this fortnight, to Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarters. Auger-Aliassime can power his way to a set just like van de Zandschulp did, but the 21-year-old doesn’t yet have the consistency to hang with Medvedev in a best-of-five. Medvedev in 4: 5-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4.

Cheryl Murray: Auger-Aliassime has finally fulfilled the expectations that have surrounded him since he turned pro. The 21-year-old Canadian has been spectacular this fortnight, his form improving a bit each round. He has really hit his stride this summer, as he kicked things off with a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon. That he runs into a brutally efficient Medvedev in the semis probably means his tournament ends on Friday, however. Medvedev has only dropped a single set in New York to inspired newcomer BVZ in the quarters. Other than that, the Russian has been laser-focused. Medvedev had his slam breakthrough at the 2019 U.S. Open, where he lost an epic five-set final to Nadal. The quick courts suit both players’ games, but Medvedev has more experience handling the big moments and he has been in slightly better form than Auger-Aliassime. The world No. 2 may look awkward with his lanky limbs and unconventional playing style, but he’s absolutely deadly on a hard court when he’s playing well–which he is. Medvedev in 4: 6-4, 6-4, 5-7, 6-2.

Pete Ziebron: Medvedev is in familiar territory again in New York, having reached at least the semifinals for the third consecutive year. He is looking to reach his third major final in the last eight that have been played. Across the net this time is Auger-Aliassime, who after having difficulty with Russian Evgeny Donskoy in the opening round has steadied his game. With his run to the quarters at Wimbledon, Auger-Aliassime has won nine of his last 10 matches at majors. Medvedev has exceeded the two-hour mark just once in five matches and has only dropped one set in the tournament thus far. Both players have faced just one seed en route to the semifinals. This fact favors the Russian, as Auger-Aliassime will soon realize that the caliber of opposition has been ratcheted up considerably as he takes on the world No. 2. The well-earned place in the semifinals will be a positive going forward for the Canadian, but Medvedev’s firepower will simply be too much on this day. Medvedev in 3: 6-3, 7-5, 6-4.