This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.
Expert picks are back for the Australian Open final on Sunday night, when both Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal are battling for not only the title but also for some serious history. With a victory, Medvedev would become the first player to back up his first slam title by winning the very next major. He would also become world No. 1 for the first time next month. Nadal, of course, would get to No. 21 with a win. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(6) Rafael Nadal vs. (2) Daniil Medvedev
Ricky Dimon: Matteo Berrettini? Great matchup for Nadal. Daniil Medvedev? Not a great matchup. It’s easy to see why. Berrettini may serve even bigger and hit his forehand even bigger than Medvedev, but the Italian’s backhand is a major weakness and he doesn’t defend well. What are two absolute must-haves to defeat Nadal? A world-class backhand and elite defensive skills–especially in terms of defending the backhand side. Medvedev has both. In fact, his combination of backhand and defense is better than everyone else’s on tour other than Novak Djokovic.
The second-ranked Russian also has the edge in endurance. That’s not a knock on Nadal; that’s just the nature of things when the Spaniard is 35 and his opponent is 25. Medvedev played for four hours and 42 minutes against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinals and then came out two days later and wore down Stefanos Tsitsipas physically even though Tsitsipas was coming off a lightning-quick quarter against Jannik Sinner. In their epic 2019 U.S. Open final, Nadal was closer to his prime and Medvedev was further away from his prime than they are now. Nadal won that one in five. I expect roles to be reversed in this one. Medvedev in 5: 5-7, 6-3, 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-3.
Cheryl Murray: Nadal is in the final of the Australian Open for the sixth time. Despite his best efforts–some of which have been flat-out Herculean–he has just one title (2009). He is chasing history, of course, The Spaniard is tied at 20 majors apiece with Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. That his first real shot at No. 21 should come in Melbourne is delightfully ironic; Oz is his least-successful slam, after all. Oh, and there’s the fact that he just tiptoed back to tennis after a half a year nursing foot pain from a congenital issue. He really has played remarkably well this fortnight. Aggressive serving, crowding the baseline on returns, and making an obvious (and often successful) attempt at shortening points to be kinder to his 35-year-old body…. That is why he has the chance.
Unfortunately for Nadal’s place in the history books, Medvedev is standing in his way as the other best player in the draw. The world No. 2 snagged his first major at the 2021 U.S. Open, handing Djokovic a beatdown as the Serb made a bid for No. 21 and the calendar-year Grand Slam. That he’s well-positioned to do the same to Nadal in Melbourne is no accident. Medvedev hasn’t been at his best some of the time over the past two weeks. A wonky match in the fourth round against Maxime Cressy had the Russian out of sorts…but he has a way of showing up in the big moments. On hard courts, Medvedev’s best is probably better than Nadal’s best. He is deceptively fast and his offense is more lethal than Nadal’s. Still, with this much on the line the Spaniard is going to show up.
Medvedev in 5: 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete Ziebron: With his semifinal victory over Tsitsipas, Medvedev certainly answered any stamina-related “questions” following his lengthy quarterfinal against Auger-Aliassime. Even a Medvedev meltdown or other mid-match detour at a major no longer appears to have any significant impact or an ability to flip a match in favor of his opponent. However, the man on the other side of the net this time is Nadal–who perhaps benefitted from the Russian’s antics at the 2019 U.S. Open and beat him in that final.
In his AO semifinal on Friday, Nadal simply outclassed Berrettini for two full sets and then withstood a serving barrage before picking his spot to do damage and secure the break in the fourth–leading to the win less than five minutes later. Even if Nadal is able to duplicate the caliber of his game from the initial two sets in the semi into the final, it will not be enough against Medvedev. The world No. 2 seemingly has all the answers, gets nearly everything back in play, and goes big at the most unexpected of times. Medvedev in 4: 6-3, 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-5.
Comments