Tennis Acumen

Monte-Carlo final expert picks: Rublev vs. Rune

This article appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks are back for the Monte-Carlo men’s singles championship match between Andrey Rublev and Holger Rune on Sunday afternoon. A three-team panel previews the showdown and makes its predictions.

Pete Ziebron: Three-time major champion Stan Wawrinka won only a single Masters 1000 title in his career, ironically in Monte-Carlo. On Sunday, either Rublev will match Stan’s number or Rune will even pull ahead with his second when the victor hoists the hardware in the Cote D’Azur. Rublev was a finalist here two years ago and even defeated Rafael Nadal in the quarters at that time. This year he navigated his way through a trickier than expected opening match against Jaume Manur and then steadied his game onward. Despite dropping the opening set against Fritz in the semis, the Russian lost just four games the rest of the way to clinch his spot in the final.

Rune had a much more challenging route to the Monte-Carlo Final. Victories over Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and Sinner here are a bit reminiscent of his Paris Masters title late last year when the Dane defeated FIVE top-10 players plus Wawrinka to win the title. This will be their third meeting since last November, with Rublev advancing to the Australian Open quarters after winning a fifth-set tiebreaker 11-9. Rublev simply wants this title more, plus Rune will be a tad fatigued after valiantly rallying past Sinner and the crowd in the semis. Rublev 6-4, 5-7, 6-3.

 

Ricky Dimon: The only real concern for Holger Rune in this one is a three-set battle with Jannik Sinner deep into Saturday night, while Andrey Rublev finished his semifinal against Taylor Fritz hours earlier. However, Rune was fine physically in that match and if he is feeling 100 percent on Sunday than he should have just about every other matchup advantage over Rublev. The 19-year-old boasts the more well-rounded all-court game, especially on clay. He is also a Masters 1000 champion already, having triumphed at the 2022 Paris Indoors–where he beat an amazing five consecutive top-10 opponents, including Rublev in the third round and Novak Djokovic in the final.

Rublev, on the other hand, is 0-2 lifetime in Masters 1000 title matches and did not even come close to winning a set in either one of those contests (one in Monte-Carlo–against Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2021). Still, I expect this to be competitive. Rublev’s forehand is lethal and he outlasted Rune in an absolutely wild five-set affair at this year’s Australian Open. Rune will likely get some revenge, but it probably won’t be easy. Rune 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.

 

Cheryl Murray: If Sunday’s match is ANYTHING like the 2023 Australian Open encounter between Rublev and Rune, we are in for a real treat. In January these two met in Melbourne with electrifying results. Rublev staved off a pair of match points and clawed his way back from a 5-0 deficit in the super- tiebreaker to close out the match 7-6(9) in the fifth set. 

It’s likely Sunday’s final is at least going the distance. Rune will be all fired up from his various…interactions with a jeering crowd during his semifinal against Sinner on Saturday. The Dane was clutch at just the right moment, breaking Sinner at 5-5 to earn a chance to serve out the match. For his part, Rublev has had a great week–but I don’t see him getting past Rune and his confidence this time around. Rune 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.

 

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Miami Open final expert picks: Medvedev vs. Sinner

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

 

Expert picks are back for the Miami men’s singles championship match between Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner on Sunday afternoon. A three-team panel previews the highly-anticipated showdown and makes its predictions.

Ricky Dimon: If you remember my pre-tournament predictions for the Miami Open, you already know which way I am going. Yes, I had Jannik Sinner over  Daniil Medvedev in the final before this event even began. There’s absolutely no reason to waffle now. After all, Sinner has been amazing in Miami–just as he has been throughout his career in the 305. The 21-year-old is 13-1 in completed matches at the Miami Masters. This run to his second Miami final featured four straight-set beatdowns (including over Andrey Rublev) and an upset of top seed and Indian Wells champion Carlos Alcaraz.

It is true that Medvedev is 5-0 in the head-to-head series, but Sinner has been extremely competitive on multiple occasions–including in the recent Rotterdam title match. Miami presents the Italian with a great opportunity to turn the tide and get over the hump. Conditions in Miami are fine for Medvedev, but they are ideal for Sinner. I think in this situation Sinner’s offense beats Medvedev’s defense. Sinner 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.

(photo credit: Karl Corbett, Tennis Acumen)

Cheryl Murray: While it lacks the zing of a Medvedev-Alcaraz showdown, a Sinner-Medvedev match is still a treat of a final for Masters 1000. Perhaps six months ago it wouldn’t have been. Medvedev holds a comprehensive 5-0 record over Sinner and their matches haven’t always been compelling. But 2023 is a different Sinner, and he has played fantastic tennis during the Sunshine Double.

Sinner has traditionally played well in Miami. The world No. 11 made the final in 2021, and while he bowed out in the quarters last year it was due to injury rather than getting outplayed. With Sinner buoyed by his semifinal win over Alcaraz on Friday and with Medvedev starting to show a bit of fatigue from playing his fifth final in five tournaments, I think the Italian gets his first win over the Russian. Sinner 7-5, 4-6, 6-2.

(photo credit: Karl Corbett, Tennis Acumen)

Pete Ziebron (Tennis Acumen): Somehow at the moment on the ATP Tour, a hard-court Masters 1000 final involves the No. 4 and No. 10 seeds. Upon closer review, however, it’s not a surprising matchup since we will all be treated to Medvedev vs. Sinner. The Sunshine Double nearly ended up with identical finals. Sinner had other ideas and crashed the party by seizing control of his semifinal against Alcaraz midway through the final set. The prize for defeating the world No. 1? An even more difficult assignment with an opponent whom he has never beaten in five previous attempts.  

Medvedev has dropped just three of 13 sets against Sinner. The Russian’s 19-match winning streak was ended by Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final, but he will attempt to win his fourth title of 2023 in Miami. At the Indian Wells Masters, Medvedev had several quality tuneups prior to the final; this time his opponents were ranked 84th, 79th, and 119th before facing world No. 16 Karen Khachanov in the semis. As comfortable as this matchup and tournament are for Medvedev, it is concurrently cumbersome and taxing for Sinner. Medvedev 6-4, 5-7, 6-4.