Tennis Acumen

Wimbledon final expert picks: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

 

(photo courtesy of txtreport.com)

Expert picks are back for the Wimbledon final on Sunday, when seven-time champion Novak Djokovic and word No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz battle for the title. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Ricky Dimon: Novak Djokovic is a 23-time Grand Slam champion and seven-time winner of Wimbledon. Carlos Alcaraz is playing in the fourth grass-court tournament of his career. Advantage: Djokovic? Maybe. But Alcaraz sent a message to both Djokovic and the entire rest of the tour with consecutive straight-set beatdowns of Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively. Even at just 20 years old, Alcaraz has all the tools to give Djokovic a run for his money at the All-England Club. Still, in a long match the Serb will likely have the edge both mentally and physically–especially considering that this is a Grand Slam final. On this kind of stage, experience is a real factor. Djokovic and Alcaraz just recently collided in the French Open semis and the tennis world was deprived of an instant classic. It’s what we all deserve to see in the rematch. Djokovic in 5: 7-6(4), 5-7, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.

Cheryl Murray: It’s going to be No. 1 vs. No. 2 at Wimbledon on Sunday. A month ago on the red clay of Roland Garros, pundits (including me) had Alcaraz moving through his semifinal showdown with Djokovic. It was going to be the changing of the guard and all of that fun business. Except it wasn’t. Alcaraz inexplicably cramped up after winning the second set and limped through the rest of the match. It was completely unexpected–a mental collapse manifesting itself in cramped thighs. The Spaniard has proven to be resilient in the face of disappointment, so I don’t necessarily count him out…and he has looked outstanding in his last couple of matches. But when you are up against maybe the greatest Wimbledon champion of all time, resilience may not be enough. Djokovic is a mental giant, pulling out his best shots when he needs them most. He is almost absurdly fit, and he’s just better than everyone else on Centre Court and has been for the better part of the last decade. I cannot (will not) pick against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(6), 6-3.

Pete Ziebron: They meet again! Both semifinals won by Djokovic and Alcaraz resulted in one-way traffic, with both victors providing slim opportunities to their opponents in their respective straight-set wins. In this final, we can only hope for the caliber of tennis that we saw in the first two sets of their recent semifinal clash last month at Roland Garros before both the body and mind of Alcaraz failed him in what he was hoping to accomplish against Djokovic. Neither player has lost a match since that day. Alcaraz has more than proven that he has figured out how to play and win on grass since last year’s fourth-round Wimbledon exit at the hands of Jannik Sinner. A large key in this final will be: can he reliably hold serve against Djokovic? Twice in the third set, despite having a firm command on the match against Medvedev, he played poorly in consecutive service games and was broken–allowing the Russian with a pair of chances to find his way back into the set and match. Fortunately for the top seed, this did not happen. It simply can not happen for him to have any chance against Djokovic. Once again, though, the Serb will prove that he is simply “too good” for Alcaraz as he capitalizes on his service breaks and concurrently makes the 20-year-old pay dearly for not holding serve when absolutely necessary. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 6-4, 7-

Wimbledon semifinal expert picks: Djokovic vs. Sinner, Alcaraz vs. Medvedev

This article appeared on The Grandstand.

Expert picks are back for the Wimbledon semifinals on Friday, when Novak Djokovic faces Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz does battle with Daniil Medvedev. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(8) Jannik Sinner vs. (2) Novak Djokovic

Ricky Dimon: This one of the few matchups involving Djokovic right now that are actually worth breaking down. Two of the others feature the two semifinalists on the other side of the Wimbledon draw, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. It’s a blockbuster final four lineup at the All-England Club, and neither match on Friday should disappoint. Sinner is a heavy underdog, of course, but there are reasons to think he will be competitive. The eighth-ranked Italian led Djokovic two sets to love in the 2022 Wimbledon quarterfinals and he is a better, more experienced player one year later. Sinner is one of just a handful of guys on tour who have the firepower to–occasionally–take the racket out of Djokovic’s hands. Sustaining it over the course of a best-of-five match, however, is a different story. The 36-year-old Serb is supremely motivated, and when he’s motivated he is pretty much unbeatable. Count on his bid for the calendar-year Grand Slam to remain alive. Djokovic in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5.

Cheryl Murray: Simply put, I won’t pick against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon. He is a seven-time Wimbledon champion and holds the title from the last four times the event was held (there was no Championships in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic). His mental toughness, his athleticism, and his innate understanding of how to win on grass are currently unmatched on the men’s tour. Still, it must be pointed out that Sinner had Djokovic on the ropes at last year’s Wimbledon. The young Italian was up two sets to none before Djokovic clawed his way back in their quarterfinal match. Sinner has only gotten stronger and more confident, so this semi should be a treat. Djokovic nearly always finds a way to win, and I expect that will be the case in this match, as well…but Sinner is going to make him work for it. Djokovic in 4: 5-7, 7-6(4), 7-5, 6-3

Pete Ziebron: Djokovic has had a significantly more difficult route to the semifinals, tested at the end by Stan Wawrinka, finding a way to ultimately break Hubert Hurkacz, and then dropping just eight games over the final three sets after dropping set one to Andrey Rublev in the quarterfinals. Sinner, meanwhile, has yet to face a seeded player. His path to the semis included wins over world No. 111 Juan Manuel Cerundolo, No. 98 Diego Schwartzman, No 79 Quentin Halys, No. 85 Daniel Elahi Galan, and No. 92 Roman Safiullin. Last year Djokovic ended Sinner’s run at Wimbledon in the quarters, coming from a two set to love deficit and surrendering only eight games in the final three sets to win the match. This match appears to be lopsided, tilted heavily in favor of Djokovic. That being said, Sinner proved that he can compete with the seven-time Wimbledon champion on Centre Court. While this would be quite the monumental win for Sinner, for Djokovic it is simply business as usual as he has his sights set on grander results this weekend and perhaps in New York later this summer. Djokovic in 4: 4-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-4. 

(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev

Ricky: I had both of these semifinal matchups in my pre-tournament predictions (as did many!), and my pick for this one at the time was Alcaraz in four. I haven’t seen anything that changes my mind. Medvedev has been good, but Alcaraz has been great–at least toward the business end of the tournament. The top-ranked Spaniard was tested by Nicolas Jarry in the third round, but he mostly cruised against 2021 Wimbledon runner-up Matteo Berrettini in round four and then erased Holger Rune in easy straight sets to wrap up the quarterfinal schedule. If Alcaraz maintains that kind of level, he is going to be too good for Medvedev. The Russian, who is coming off a five-setter against Chris Eubanks, is a self-proclaimed hard-court specialist. I just can’t see him beating Alcaraz on any other surface at the moment. Alcaraz in 4: 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5, 6-4.

Cheryl:  No. 1 vs. No. 3 in the semifinals of Wimbledon is the working definition of “not a surprise.” Except…it IS kind of a surprise. Perhaps not from Alcaraz, who works his way into the business end of almost every tournament he enters. But Medvedev had not exactly been impressive in his previous showings at the All-England Club. His best-ever result prior to this season was a fourth-round appearance in 2021. A grass-court expert he is not. Alcaraz gave Medvedev a shellacking when they met in the Indian Wells finals. This isn’t likely to be so one-sided; it will probably be more competitive. Still, the Spaniard has displayed impressive consistency. He has already won five titles in 2023, including the warm-up event at Queen’s Club. It’s hard to imagine Medvedev taking out Alcaraz when the top seed is in this form. Alcaraz in 4: 7-5, 4-6, 6-3, 7-5.

Pete: It has been quite the roller-coaster season this year for Medvedev, with a straight-set, third-round loss at the Australian Open, a 19-match winning streak ended by Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final, a pair of Masters 1000 titles in Miami and Rome, and a much earlier departure than expected in the opening round at Roland Garros. Since their meeting in the California desert in March, Alcaraz also won the Madrid Masters 1000 and breezed through an impressive field a few weeks ago at Queen’s Club. Both players had tussles in reaching the semis: Medvedev with Eubanks in the quarters, where he was a fourth-set tiebreak loss away from departing the tournament, and Alcaraz with Jarry and Berrettini in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. Sure they played here two years ago, Medvedev winning easily in straights; but Alcaraz was No. 75 in the world at the time and played a Challenger event two months prior. Where Medvedev would usually be able to find a way to win against most of the rest of the ATP field, he has few answers against Alcaraz in this semifinal. Alcaraz in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 7-5, 6-3.