This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.
Expert picks are back for the Australian Open semifinals on Friday, when 10-time champion Novak Djokovic faces world No. 4 Jannik Sinner. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(1) Novak Djokovic vs. (4) Jannik Sinner
Ricky Dimon: Given the lofty standards currently being set by Djokovic and Sinner (when they are on the court at the same time or even when they are playing against anyone else), anything less than an instant classic would be a disappointment. And that’s exactly what we might get. Djokovic is 10-0 lifetime in Australian Open semifinals (and 10-0 in finals, too), but if there is anyone who can challenge him it could be Sinner (or perhaps Carlos Alcaraz in a potential title match). Their rivalry is at a high point now, with Sinner having won three of four encounters last fall (1-1 at the Nitto ATP Finals and then the Italian won from three match points down in the Davis Cup semis). Sinner ended last year as the hottest player on tour and nothing has changed following a quintet of straight-set wins in Melbourne. That’s why he should be competitive on Friday–but I can’t quite pick him to win. Djokovic has won both of their best-of-five matches (at Wimbledon in 2022 and 2023) and nowhere is he tougher to beat than at the Australian Open. 10-0 in AO semis becomes 11-0. Djokovic in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4.
Cheryl Murray: I really want to pick Sinner to win this match. He was my pre-tournament bracket pick to win the whole thing and I think he has looked the best of any competitor on the court. He has recently shown that he is not intimidated by Djokovic, as evidenced by the fact that he’s gotten two wins over the Serb in the last couple of months (NOTE: the ATP website has inexplicably failed to display Sinner’s win in round-robin play at the Nitto Tour Finals). But with that being said, now that the time has come, I think I’m losing my nerve. Because it’s Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. And, yes, he’s been a little shakier than usual–dropping sets in three of his matches so far. But even though I think Sinner has been the better player, I can’t quite make myself pick against Djokovic in Melbourne until he gives me reason to do so–reasons like losing 15 matches in a row or something. I just can’t do it. Djokovic is the most clutch player of all time and once again playing in the later stages of his best tournament. Sinner might–and probably will–get close. He’ll have chances. But Djokovic is Djokovic and he is undoubtedly the most successful chance-eraser in the history of the sport. Djokovic in 5: 6-7(5), 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-4.
Pete Ziebron: The Davis Cup losses (plural, because singles and doubles) to Sinner at the recent Davis Cup competition sting Djokovic much more than we may think. Somehow the Serb was not able to get it done despite holding multiple match points in their singles match at the semifinal stage. However, whatever the pressures or extracurricular aspects of competing for his nation are, they do not exist at a major for Djokovic. Here it is business as usual, and more importantly, a best-of-five format. Sinner has breezed into the semifinals without dropping a set. The Davis Cup hero’s longest match of the tournament–in the last round against Rublev–lasted only two hours and 39 minutes. Concurrently, Djokovic was forced to work diligently out of the gate–tested unexpectedly sternly by a qualifier and an Aussie, going four sets in each tussle. After correcting course the next two rounds, he again found himself at a set apiece in the quarters with Fritz before putting his patented stranglehold grip on the match–dropping just five games the rest of the way. Although the 36-year-old has played three matches over three hours thus far, it simply will not faze him in this, his 48th major semifinal. If anything, the recent defeats at Sinner’s hands will provide a reminder to close out the match properly and in a timely fashion. Djokovic in 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.
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