Tennis Acumen

2024 French Open final expert picks: Alcaraz vs. Zverev

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

 

Expert picks are back for the French Open final on Sunday, when Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev collide in a matchup of first-time finalists at this tournament. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.

(4) Alexander Zverev vs. (3) Carlos Alcaraz

Ricky Dimon: Alcaraz is a sizable favorite in this match. So the question is: can Zverev be competitive? The answer is absolutely yes. He actually matches up well with Alcaraz, with a 5-4 lead in the head-to-head series. That features a 2-1 record in Grand Slams, including one win already at Roland Garros (2022 quarterfinals) and another earlier this season at the Australian Open (also in the quarterfinals). Zverev’s only slam loss to Alcaraz (2023 U.S. Open quarterfinals) came immediately following an absolute marathon against Jannik Sinner that left the German with nothing left in the tank. In addition to this being a favorable matchup, Zverev has been in awesome form this spring and already owns one clay-court title at the Rome Masters.

It’s clear that Zverev has a great chance on Sunday. Now the second question is: can he get across the finish line? The answer is maybe not. Zverev is the best player on the ATP Tour currently without a major title and the pressure to win one is mounting. His only previous final (2020 U.S. Open) saw him choke while serving for the match at 5-4 in the fifth before losing to Dominic Thiem in a tiebreaker. Zverev’s service yips and overall mental struggles have improved, but he still wasn’t convincing in closing out recent victories over Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud. Meanwhile, Alcaraz is already a two-time slam champion with a history of stepping up his game in pressure-packed moments. The Spaniard is too talented to get blown out, and if the match is close he undoubtedly has the mental edge late. Alcaraz in 5: 4-6, 6-3, 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-5.

Cheryl Murray: Alcaraz and Zverev will meet for the 10th time on Sunday in their biggest match to date. It’s a worthy men’s final. Zverev holds a scant 5-4 record over the Spanish superstar, and it’s the second major in a row that they have run into each other–so it’s shaping up to be a legitimate rivalry. Maybe not to the extent nor with the sizzle of the Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal rivalry, but Amelie Mauresmo (tournament director of Roland Garros) must be pleased all the same.

The final isn’t without controversy. Until Friday, Zverev was embroiled in a court case in Germany for shoving and strangling ex-partner Brenda Patea, also the mother of his child. It is the second such accusation against the German. Ms. Patea ultimately decided to drop the charges, but the savvy French crowd will be all too aware of the situation. The fans will be firmly in Alcaraz’s court, but he was unconvincing in a messy semifinal win over Jannik Sinner. Both men are excellent on clay, although Zverev has had the better clay-court swing with a title at the Rome Masters just before he came to Paris. Alcaraz has the benefit of prior major titles, having won Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. So if Zverev has a bout of nerves, Alcaraz will be able to take advantage. Regardless, I expect superior form to rule the day. Zverev in 5: 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(5), 4-6, 7-5.

Pete Ziebron: Zverev is on a very short list of ATP players that concern Alcaraz. The German has won five of their nine meetings, including a quarterfinal matchup at Roland Garros two years ago. A few weeks ago,Zverev took advantage of a decimated field to win his sixth Masters 1000 event in Rome. Alcaraz struggled mightily early on in his semifinal against Sinner before correcting course and prevailing in five sets. The Spaniard confirmed post match that he learned from the disappointment in his semifinal last year against Djokovic and that he was better prepared this time when he played poorly and doubts crept in while contesting a match deep in a major. Whatever lingering ailments from earlier in the year are seemingly no longer an issue for Alcaraz, as evidenced by his performances throughout the tournament and especially in his semifinal win that lasted in excess of four hours. 

Zverev has a shot–a very good shot–to win and has played very well in Paris.  Unfortunately, he does not have a major yet and he is facing one of the elite players on tour in a major final. Thus the overall picture of the career accomplishments to date for Alcaraz as well as what he has since been able to correct when he faltered against Djokovic will be more than enough for him to notch his third different major title. Alcaraz in 4: 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-4.

 

2024 French Open SF expert picks: Sinner vs. Alcaraz

This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.

 

Expert picks are back for the French Open semifinals on Friday, when Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz renew their rivalry. A three-team panel previews the highly anticipated matchup and makes its predictions.

(3) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (2) Jannik Sinner

Ricky Dimon: Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz. The best current rivalry in tennis and the heir apparent to Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal. Obviously neither the rivalry nor the individual players involved stack up to Federer and Nadal (yet?), but the matchup itself is arguably more interesting–it’s certainly tougher to predict. Relative to Fedal, the surface is close to meaningless when it comes to Sinner vs. Alcaraz. Both guys are all-court players; in fact, both may be the two best in the world on all three surfaces right now.

The result could be yet another instant classic between the two–and it would be one that was far from a sure thing when the tournament began due to respective injuries (Sinner hip and Alcaraz arm). To me Alcaraz has looked more convincing from a physical standpoint throughout this fortnight, but Sinner has at least seemed healthy enough to assume that Friday’s showdown will feature two guys at 100 percent. If that is the case, Sinner has looked like the best player in the world from a pure tennis standpoint. That’s exactly what he has been dating back to last fall and that’s exactly what the rankings say he will be next week. The Italian is striking the ball better than anyone these days and he also plays with more margin for error than Alcaraz, a factor that could make the difference in the pressure moments. If it goes five I would probably give the physical edge to Alcaraz, but I think Sinner–who has won two of their last three meetings–will be able to finish the job in four. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-5, 7-6(6).

Cheryl Murray: Sinner vs. Alcaraz is the premier matchup in men’s tennis right now–and perhaps more importantly seems like it will be for the foreseeable future. They are an even 4-4 in the head-to-head, although Friday marks just the third slam meeting (Sinner won the first at Wimbledon two years ago and Alcaraz won the second in the best match of 2022 at the U.S. Open). Both men are huge talents, likable on court and off. Alcaraz is the flashier player of the two, a shotmaker who can hit a winner from seemingly anywhere on court. Sinner is the better ball-striker, though. He’s clever and versatile, a strategic opportunist who generates a surprising amount of power from such a lean frame. He will become No. 1 in the world on Monday for a good reason.

The surface gives a slight edge to Alcaraz, but this match is likely to come down to current form. Alcaraz has looked better in Paris, owing perhaps to the injury Sinner picked up in Madrid and the subsequent rust from taking a month off. It won’t be in straight sets, but look for Alcaraz to squeak by. Alcaraz in 5: 4-6, 7-5, 6-3, 6-7(5), 7-5.

Pete Ziebron: At any other time in the last few years, one would look at the draw and simply fast forward to the semifinals with a Sinner-Alcaraz matchup. However, this year–due to injuries and uncertainties–these logical predictions were hardly guaranteed. Yet here we are, with the overwhelming majority of higher-ranked players living up to their seedings and playing surface specialties as the 2024 edition of Roland Garros approaches conclusion. Ironically, this (the ninth overall matchup in the series) will be just the second meeting between these two players on clay–as well as their third meeting at a third different major.

Sinner will wake up on Monday as the world No. 1 regardless of his result the rest of the way in the tournament. That said, perhaps that element of pressure will be absent for the Italian as he attempts to reach the final. Concurrently, Alcaraz will also play his brand of fearless tennis in this semifinal. The winner already knows that his opponent in the final will not be Djokovic. Neither player has been sternly tested thus far, as each dropped just one set en route to the the semis. Alcaraz will swing freely more on this day and he will be three-fourths of the way to completing the Grand Slam. Alcaraz in 4: 6-3, 2-6, 7-6(6), 6-3.