This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.
Expert picks are back for the Wimbledon final on Sunday, when Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic collide in a rematch of last year’s five-set thriller. A three-team panel previews the action and makes its predictions.
(3) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (2) Novak Djokovic
Ricky Dimon: Alcaraz won the 2023 championship match in five sets. Fast forward one year and Alcaraz is better while Djokovic is worse. That’s putting it in extremely simple terms, of course, but it’s the truth. Although Djokovic is still going strong at 37 years old by anyone else’s standards, he has not won a single tournament in 2024 and physical problems are mounting. The Serb looks close to 100 percent at Wimbledon despite his recent knee injury, but he might need to be 110 percent to beat Alcaraz. The Spaniard just won the French Open and did so without his ‘A’ game. He was also well off his ‘A’ game through the first four rounds of this event but in his last two matches he erased Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev in impressive fashion. Alcaraz is the younger, better player and it’s not like experience is a real factor for Djokovic given how many times the 21-year-old has already been on–and thrived in–these kinds of pressure-packed settings in the early stages of his career. Alcaraz in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3.
Cheryl Murray: It’s usually a no-brainer to pick an Alcaraz-Djokovic final. And that’s typically true regardless of the surface or tournament. Yet I didn’t have either of them on my Wimbledon final BINGO card–in part because Djokovic just had surgery after the French Open and Alcaraz had exactly two grass matches as a Wimbledon tune-up. Defending champion or no, it was hardly impressive. Yet here we are.
This is a matchup full of potential that usually delivers but occasionally doesn’t. That’s mostly down to Alcaraz, who is brilliant when he shows up but abysmal when he doesn’t. He was nowhere to be found in the 2023 French Open semifinal–a fairly standard match from a physicality perspective, but one that saw Alcaraz doubled over with cramps (this writer can’t help but think these were mostly cramps of the mental variety). But then there was last year’s Wimbledon and Cincinnati finals and hoooo wheeeee. What a pair of matches. They were almost certainly two of the best of the entire year (Alcaraz won Wimbledon, Djokovic Cincy). I would be shocked if Djokovic doesn’t show us his best tennis of the tournament. The thing is that Djokovic hasn’t really needed to be great to get to the final. He had a walkover in the quarters against an injured Alex de Minaur and played Lorenzo Musetti to earn his spot in the final. Alcaraz, by comparison, has really worked up a lather and he had to manage an in-form Medvedev in the semis. Sometimes the extra time on court causes fatigue, but in this case I think it’s to the Spaniard’s advantage. Alcaraz in 5: 6-4, 2-6, 7-5, 6-7(5), 6-4.
Pete Ziebron: It’s a rematch of the 2023 Wimbledon final, and concurrently a showdown between the world No. 2 and world No. 3. They have won a mere combined total of two titles in 2024–both by Alcaraz. Nonetheless, no one should be surprised that Alcaraz and Djokovic are in the championship match. Neither player has exhibited much of their vintage tennis this fortnight, but each one has certainly taken care of business in the stages of the match that have mattered the most against all opponents. Hiccups along the way were to be expected by Djokovic given his recent injury and overall performance this year. For Alcaraz, the defending champion, an underwhelming level has been much more surprising given the opponents he faced en route to the final. As such, it will be Djokovic who will prevail as he corrects the course and reverses the outcome of the result from a year ago when the Spaniard won in five sets. Djokovic in 4: 6-7(4), 6-3, 7-5, 6-4.