This article originally appeared on The Grandstand.
Expert picks are back for the Australian Open, where the Taylor Fritz-Daniil Medvedev section of the draw has opened up in a big way. A three-team panel makes its predictions on who will reach the semifinals.
Ricky Dimon: Learner Tien
I’m on the bandwagon. Almost anyone in a field of 128 can get hot and/or benefit from a favorable draw and fluke his way to the fourth round of a Grand Slam, but that certainly isn’t the case with Tien. This guy is for real. The way he outlasted No. 5 seed Daniil Medvedev in a fifth-set tiebreaker and then wore down a fellow left-hander in Corentin Moutet was extremely impressive. And it’s not like this a one-time thing. Tien was also awesome in 2024, when he dominated the Challenger circuit and finished runner-up at the NextGen ATP Finals to Joao Fonseca.
I think the matchup with Lorenzo Sonego is great for Tien. All the pressure is on Sonego as a veteran who has never advanced to a major quarterfinal and Tien’s left-handedness will expose the Italian’s weaker side, the backhand. The 19-year-old American would then get either Ben Shelton or Gael Monfils. There are two outlets for success. One, it’s Shelton. In that case all the pressure on Shelton–just like it is on Sonego–and the older of the two Americans has never fared well against fellow lefties. Two, it’s Monfils coming off a grueling match with Shelton–like a competitive four-setter or a five-setter. Monfils would be a bad matchup for Tien, but the Frenchman is 38 years old and has a lot of tread on his tires already in 2025. If Shelton can either beat Monfils or at least finish him off physically, the door will be open for Tien. That’s right, folks; I’m going with a 19-year-old qualifier to reach the semis of the Australian Open.
Cheryl Murray: Gael Monfils
It’s Gael Monfils’ world…we’re all just living in it. Admittedly, there’s no way to tell when the clock’s going to strike midnight and his carriage turns back to a pumpkin, but as of this moment there’s simply no denying that Monfils is the best of the players in his section of the draw. Does that mean he’s going to advance? Not necessarily. First, he has played a lot of tennis in the past two weeks and fatigue will be a factor eventually. Second, there’s another Cinderella right in his section of the draw–Tien, a rising American teenager. And third, Shelton and his serve should never be easily dismissed.
I don’t see Sonego getting through, but I could make a case for any of the other three. If Shelton serves well. If Monfils’ body holds up. If Tien…keeps Tien-ing. Tien will have a better shot against Shelton than the Monfils we have seen these past two weeks; Monfils’ tough test is going to come against Shelton.
Pete Ziebron: Gael Monfils
Prior to COVID interrupting the world in 2020, Gael Monfils was on fire–winning two titles and compiling an impressive 15-2 record. His only losses were to No. 5 seed Dominic Thiem in the fourth round of the Australian Open and to Novak Djokovic in the Dubai semifinals. The Frenchman won the Montpellier 250 as well as the ATP 500 in Rotterdam that year and raced to 12 consecutive victories before Djokovic defeated him in three sets. Five years later, Monfils is currently on an eight-match winning streak and is 9-1 on the season. He won the Auckland 250 tournament and his lone loss is to Djokovic in the Brisbane second round. The parallels are remarkable.
This year Monfils defeated upstart countryman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in a fierce five-set match to begin his Australian Open campaign. Next he won in straight sets over Daniel Altmaier in the second round. Finally, despite dropping the opening set to the fourth-seeded Fritz, Monfils went on to serve brilliantly in a four-set victory–setting the stage for a fourth-round match against another American in Shelton. Although Shelton is on the rise and 16 years younger, I like Monfils to prevail. Where the young American is still attempting to become a serious threat on the ATP Tour, Monfils has been around the block for a couple of decades now and is relishing every victory. He has he eyes set on a much deeper run in Melbourne. The winner will play either Sonego or Tien. Sonego had a 6-6 career mark at the Australian Open entering the event and Tien is 19-year-old qualifier who stunned three-time Australian Open finalist Medvedev in nearly five hours in the second round. Monfils is loose (when is he not!?!?!) and freewheeling in 2025. His carefree and sometimes careless brand of tennis will be enough to win his next two matches to book a place in the semifinals.
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